The Unspoken Premise – The Elephant in the Room

Australia’s energy security has always depended on supply more than policy declarations. Despite years of shifting narratives about the role of gas, reality has converged on a straightforward conclusion: the country needs more of it. Domestic production forecasts have pointed to shortfalls in the eastern states and for LNG exports long before net-zero targets became the dominant talking point. The debate has since moved from phasing out gas to managing its scarcity, with reservation policies now proposed as a solution. These policies, however, rest on the assumption, the unspoken premise, that the resource base is fixed and finite. That the gas “pie” cannot be enlarged. It’s the elephant in the room.

That assumption is both limiting and inaccurate. Australia remains significantly underexplored relative to its size. In geological terms, the continent is gas-prone rather than oil-prone. Historical exploration results show that the more wells are drilled, the more gas (and oil) is discovered. Yet the number of exploration wells has fallen sharply over the past two decades, failing to replenish the reserve base that current policy discussions now seek to ration. Without renewed exploration drilling, any gas reservation scheme risks creating only a temporary surplus that will eventually shrink again as supply declines.

The Bamaga Basin offers a direct way forward. Located offshore Queensland in the Gulf of Carpentaria, it sits in an underexplored but geologically promising setting with the capacity to deliver major new gas discoveries. Early assessments indicate the basin could contain sufficient resources to support eastern Australian gas demand for more than 80 years at current consumption levels. Expanding exploration activity in such frontier areas represents the most effective means of growing the gas resource base, restoring balance between supply and demand, and avoiding the price volatility that follows from treating existing reserves as the limit of what is available.

Drilling more wells is the practical response to forecasts of shortfall. Focusing activity in high-potential areas such as the Bamaga Basin can transform the discussion from dividing an existing pie to expanding it.

For more information of the Bamaga Basin click here, and to find out more about the Gulf Energy’s New Frontier Opportunity click here.