Global LNG demand is increasing

McKinsey has researched the global outlook for gas to 2050 and has determined that gas is the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2030, peaking and plateauing from 2037. From 2035 to 2050, gas demand is forecast to decline by only 0.4 percent.  This relatively moderate decline is due to hard-to-replace gas use in the chemical and industrial sectors, which limits the impact of an accelerating decline in gas used for power.

What is concerning to future global demand is the additional supply required to be discovered and/or reach FID (Final Investment Decision) from 2027 onward.  It’s not just McKinsey saying the world has a massive future LNG deficiency problem, but also others including BP, Shell and Wood McKenzie. In BP’s Energy Outlook 2023, chief economist Spencer Dale, said investment in upstream production would be needed until 2050 to ensure supply matched demand. “Natural declines in existing production sources mean there needs to be continuing upstream investment in oil and natural gas over the next 30 years,” he wrote in the report.

Natural gas and LNG are essential for the global energy transition, as evidenced by growing long-term supply contracts

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, European and Asian countries more than most have recognized that they must reduce reliance on any one region or country’s supply of energy including natural gas.

Natural gas is both a transition and a destination fuel. Natural gas and LNG are essential for the energy transition as they play an instrumental role in shifting away from coal and moving toward net-zero emissions. As the transition evolves, natural gas will remain vital in providing reliable and efficient energy to support economies in different parts of the world including Australia and all of Asia.

The re-drawing of global energy supply maps is pushing natural gas and LNG demand to new heights and spurring new off-take contracting and other activities and opportunities for companies like Gulf Energy, for example:

  • Venture Global LNG Inc. is acquiring a fleet of nine liquefied natural gas (LNG) powered vessels. The vessels are being constructed in South Korea and are set to be delivered later in the year, Venture Global said in a news release Monday. All nine ships will deploy “best-in-class environmental and efficiency technology” and will be primarily fueled by the company’s LNG, it said. (Rigzone, 20 March 2024)

  • Texas LNG Brownsville LLC, a subsidiary of Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC, has signed a heads of agreement (HOA) with Gunvor Group Ltd., through Gunvor Singapore Pte Ltd., for a 20-year Free-on-Board (FOB) sale and purchase agreement for 0.5 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG from its 4-million tonne/year (tpy) LNG plant being developed at the Port of Brownsville, Texas. (Oil & Gas Journal, 19 March 2024)

  • ADNOC has signed a 15-year heads of agreement with SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore Pte Ltd., a subsidiary of Germany’s SEFE Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, for the delivery of 1 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG. (Oil & Gas Journal, 19 March 2024)

  • The United States exported 7.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe last year, maintaining its position as the region’s biggest LNG source for the third consecutive year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported. (Rigzone, 8 March 2024)

  • TotalEnergies SE has signed a sale and purchase agreement (SPA) to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Sembcorp Fuels, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore-based Sembcorp Industries. The deal entails the delivery of up to 0.8 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG for a duration of sixteen years, starting in 2027. (Rigzone, 1 March 2024)

  • Global energy company Woodside has signed a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales and purchase agreement with Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS). The deal will see Woodside supply around 0.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG to Korea over a 10.5-year period, beginning 2026. (Gasworld, 28 February 2024)

  • Vitol Inc. has signed a long-term sale and purchase agreement for the delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with EOG Resources, Inc. Under the agreement, EOG will supply 180,000 million British thermal units per day (MMBtu/d) of natural gas, which is equivalent to approximately 1.25 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG, to Vitol at a purchase price indexed to Brent Crude Oil. (Rigzone, 27 February 2024)

  • Qatar plans to expand exports of liquefied natural gas amid rising demand and a pause on growth projects in the US, a key rival supplier. The nation, which vies with the US and Australia as the biggest shipper of the fuel, will develop a new 16 million tons a year project before the end of this decade, lifting annual production capacity to 142 million tons by 2030. (Rigzone, 26 February 2024)

  • Japan has laid down a $US1.4 billion ($2.1 billion) vote of confidence in Australian gas by taking a big slice of Woodside Energy’s Scarborough project in Western Australia, underscoring Asia’s appetite for supply of the fossil fuel for decades to come. (Australian Financial Review, 23 February 2024)

  • Equinor and India’s Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corp. Ltd. (DFPCL) have signed a 15-year agreement for the supply of 0.65 million tonnes/year of LNG with deliveries starting in 2026. (Oil & Gas Journal, 21 February 2024)

  • Global demand for LNG is expected to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching increases in China and South Asian and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support economic growth, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024. (Oil & Gas Journal, 15 February 2024)

  • Indian city gas distribution company Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL) and INOX India Ltd have signed a mutual support agreement for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) partnership. Under the agreement, the two companies have designated each other “preferred partner” status for the delivery of LNG and liquefied compressed natural gas (LCNG) equipment and services. (Rigzone, 14 February 2024)

  • Chesapeake Energy Corp. has signed tripartite agreements for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Delfin LNG LLC, which the former has committed to sell to Singapore. The suite of deals, which also involves Gunvor Group Ltd., includes an agreement for Chesapeake to supply the offtake volume from the Louisiana project of Delfin LNG, a company of Delfin Midstream Inc., to Gunvor Singapore Pte. Ltd. (Rigzone, 14 February 2024)

  • QatarEnergy and Qatar Gas Transport Co. Ltd. (Nakilat) have agreed on a time-charter arrangement for up to 25 newbuild LNG carriers, part of a bigger fleet expansion program by the Gulf state. (Rigzone, 13 February 2024)

  • Centrica Energy has signed an agreement to purchase one million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments between 2025 and 2027 from Spain’s Repsol SA. (Rigzone, 9 February 2024)

  • Qatar will supply India 7.5 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of LNG for 20 years under a deal signed between QatarEnergy and the South Asian country’s Petronet LNG Ltd. (PLL). (Rigzone, 8 February 2024)

  • QatarEnergy has agreed to supply 7.5 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG to India for 20 years through a purchase agreement with Petronet LNG Ltd. Contracted LNG volumes from Qatar will be delivered ex-ship to terminals across India onboard QatarEnergy’s LNG fleet starting May 2028. (Oil & Gas, 7 February 2024)

  • The Nigerian National Petroleum Co. Ltd. (NNPC) has held talks with a South Korean consortium toward a potential agreement for the export of Nigerian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the East Asian country. (Rigzone, 5 February 2024)

  • Grain LNG, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in the United Kingdom (UK) operated by National Grid, has signed a ten-year supply agreement extending the long-term storage and redelivery capacity of Algeria’s Sonatrach from January 2029. The agreement is for 125 gigawatt-hours per day, or three million metric tons per annum, of LNG import capacity, stemming from Grain LNG’s auction process launched in September 2023. (Rigzone, 1 February 2024)

  • Excelerate Energy, Inc. and QatarEnergy have signed a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) sale and purchase agreement for the supply of the commodity from Qatar to Bangladesh. Under the agreement, Excelerate will purchase up to one million metric tons per annum, (mtpa) of LNG from QatarEnergy on a delivered ex-ship basis in Bangladesh for 15 years, beginning January 2026. Further, Exelerate will purchase 0.85 mtpa of LNG in 2026 and 2027 and on mtpa from 2028 to 2024. (Rigzone, 30 January 2024)

  • Global gas industry in the 2050 net zero world: Gas has a key role to play in the energy transition, but only if it can decarbonise. (Wood Mackenzie, 30 January 2024)

  • Europe’s demand for gas is driving $223 billion in new investment to produce the fuel globally during the next decade, according to a new study that casts a spotlight on the region’s broad carbon footprint even as it tries to rein in emissions. Two US liquefied natural gas companies — Venture Global LNG Inc. and Cheniere Energy Inc. — are set to lead spending on new developments going forward, climate activist group Global Witness said in its report, which analyzes data from Rystad Energy. Industry heavyweights TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA are also high on the list. (Rigzone, 29 January 2024)

  • The US is poised to meet growing demand for LNG in coming years, despite an anticipated near doubling of demand from China as that country works to lower greenhouse gas emissions, China, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia—will each require more than 100-million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG through 2040. (Oil & Gas Journal, 26 January 2024)

  • Ksi Lisims LNG Limited Partnership, a co-development of the Nisga’a Nation, Rockies LNG Limited Partnership, and Western LNG LLC, announced that Ksi Lisims LNG and Shell Eastern Trading Pte Ltd have signed a 20-year LNG sale and purchase agreement. Under the SPA, Shell will purchase 2 million tonnes of LNG per year from the Ksi Lisims LNG project on a free-on-board basis. This is the first LNG offtake agreement executed by Ksi Lisims LNG. (World Oil, 8 January 2024).

  • Vitol Asia Pte Ltd has signed a long-term deal to supply GAIL (India) Limited with approximately one million metric tons of LNG per annum for 10 years beginning in 2026. (Rigzone, 8 January 2024).

  • China has regained title of world’s biggest buyer of liquified natural gas, as a further rebound in deliveries threatens to tighten supply of the heating and power plant fuel. LNG shipments to China rose 12 percent last year to nearly 71 million tons, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Rigzone, 4 January 2024).

See past activities and opportunities for companies like Gulf Energy below:

Most of the future global LNG demand will come from Asia

Australia is ‘Location Competitive’ for much of Asia

The high potential Asian market for LNG is forecast to double, but Australia hasn’t found or developed enough new gas to meet the predicted demand

Australia is closer to most high potential Asian markets than its closest LNG exporting competitors, Qatar and the USA.

Australia has failed to maintain a steady stream of new gas production projects being brought online.

More than $200 billion of LNG projects were approved for final investment decisions (FIDs) in Australia before 2012. Since then, Woodside’s Scarborough project is the only LNG capacity project to reach FID (in November 2021).

Without further investment in new LNG trains and upstream infrastructure, Australia may lose its position as a major LNG exporter and will almost certainly lose its energy security.