Refreshingly Honest, Balanced, and Insightful
These days the debate about energy and optimal ways to transition is highly partisan, with idealogues dominating the debates and those with alternative views frequently being demonised.
It was therefore noteworthy to me when I came across the transcript of a recent interview titled “Energy guru Daniel Yergin: «I'm sick of the energy transition discussion»”, of Daniel Yergin on the question “Is this the end of the oil age?”. Mr Yergin, often called the most influential energy analyst in the world, is the author of the bestselling Pulitzer Prize winning book “The Prize. The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power” on the history of oil.
The interview is refreshingly honest and balanced, a rarity these days. Rather than me paraphrasing the interview I highly recommend you read it yourself. Let me give you a taste of the realistic tone of Daniel Yergin’s comments by quoting from the beginning of the interview:
Q: Is this the end of the oil age?
“No. Predicting exactly when the demand for oil will fall is like a game. Demand is growing in developing and emerging countries right now. We will probably continue to see growth until sometime into the early 2030s, and even then, demand won’t be dropping precipitously. It will be more of a slow decline.”
Q: So, there won't really be a big sudden change?
“I'm sick of the energy transition discussion. It sometimes loses touch with economic history and reality. If you look at the history of energy transitions, they all last for over a century. To try and make change happen in 25 years, or even half of that time is highly unlikely.”
Q: What is the difference between the current energy transition and previous ones?
“Well, there is one fundamental difference. All of them were energy additions. Oil overtook coal as the world’s number one energy source in the 1960s. But coal hasn’t disappeared. Last year, the world used more coal than ever before, three times as much as in the 1960s. Now we are trying to go from one system to another in a really short time without paying a lot of attention to the amount of resources and minerals that would be required.”
Like I said, Daniel Yergin’s views are insightful, balanced, and framed in realism.
You can read the full interview with Daniel Yergin here found on the nzz.ch website.